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White House follies

Tennessee Senator Bob Corker’s likening Donald Trump’s White House to an “adult daycare center” marks him as one of the Senate’s best wits. It also comes close to the truth. General John Kelly and the rest of the palace guard have tried to manage Trump as if he was not capable of governing. Any challenge to their authority is met with a cascade of leaks and unfortunately for Trump, he retaliates with a storm of Twittera-powered comments.

If the world was not so dangerous it would be quasi-amusing. But with the “crisis” with North Korea unresolved and Trump making noises of walking away from the Iran deal, this kind of political scrum in the White House is unwelcome. It makes American foreign policy seem undisciplined at best and incoherent at worse. Moreover, it places Trump and, by extension, the United States in the wrong.

No other country is going to leave the Iran deal except the United States, all trade continued unabated with the European Union, which benefits Tehran. The United States has little trade with Iran and the money frozen in American banks has been released. Add the Kurdish attempt to create a separate state in Iraq over the objections of Turkey and Iran, and the United States risks isolation. Of course, it always has its expensive ally Israel, but that is it.

Even the Saudi Arabian King went to Moscow to get some clarity from Vladimir Putin. With the U.S. in flux the Russian Federation is seen as a better bet. The current palace wrangling could do nothing but confirm to Riyadh that the king made a percentage move by tilting to Moscow.

And it gets worse. Thanks to Congress and its incessant promotion of anti-Russian sanctions, the Chinese are taking up the slack in eastern Europe. A good deal of Ukraine’s defense industry is owned by Chinese business. The hawks locked the door at the front only to leave it open in the back. Petro Poroshenko has to give a thought to meeting Putin halfway. And it seems he has lost his Saudi ally.

Trump has managed to create a situation where America has few friends. His antagonizing of Europe will probably be rewarded by an easing of sanctions in Russia. Germany’s far right party alternative has urged an abandonment of Angela Merkel’s containment strategy. Emmanual Macron is supporting the Iran deal and so France will be of no help. One misstep after the other, combining the want of American foreign policy hatched by either party.

So, for Trump, it is not good enough to say you will reverse everything Barack Obama put in place. You have to shape an understandable foreign policy. The smashing of diplomatic crockery is simply arousing fears among usual allies. So much so that some run for protection to former enemies. When Rex Tillerson goes, there is the last sane link to the Middle East. If Tillerson goes, James “Mad Dog” Mattis will be sure to follow, only to be chased by H.R. McMasters. This is chaos and a particularly dangerous brand.

If Trump was serious about changing American foreign policy he certainly has damaged his own cause. It is one thing to declare America first, it is quite the other to be America alone.

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