ELKINS — The Randolph County Superintendent of Schools said this week that the county may be heading toward having only four public schools in the coming years.

Dr. Shawn Dilly gave the Board of Education a presentation at this week’s meeting that focused on enrollment decline and a possible four-school model for the county.

Dilly said he has been working on a number of things as the county looks ahead into the future.

“I’m hoping we can put a discussion item on the next meeting, a little bit about the bond and levy, because I think that is important to talk about as we start to think about our future,” Dilly told the BOE.

Dilly proceeded with a power-point presentation that began by showing how the county’s enrollment has declined by 1,101 students over the past 20 years.

“Essentially that is like losing Elkins High School back when I taught at the school and there were about 1,100 students then,” Dilly said. “So that has a lot of implications as far as planning, facilities, a variety of staffing, and a number of factors… I’ve taken some actual efforts to develop some statistical models, so we can make some informed decisions about this.”

Dilly showed the BOE a graph that contained enrollment projections and trends, showing this year’s rapid decline and pointed out that, in one scenario, the county is projected to fall below 2,500 students by 2044.

“We are seeing a pretty significant occurrence a lot faster than what I think people would understand, and that’s what I’m trying to do with this modeling, to help people understand that we are losing enrollment very quickly,” Dilly said. “Part of our long-term planning needs to be investments into the right facilities, so that we are ensuring that when these occurrences happen, that we address this in a way that we are not taking away from students’ needs. In the recent momentum, falling below 3,000 (students) by 2030, I think is a very real estimate, and 2,500 by 2037.”

Dilly told the Board that it needs to plan ahead and look into long-term investments when looking at all the different models.

“What I’m suggesting is that we should be thinking about a long-term plan for a four-school model,” Dilly said. “With different triggers for when we think about consolidations, for when we think about building projects, as well as how we support the district long term.”

Dilly then showed the BOE what a four-school model might look like when enrollment falls between 2,500 and 3,000 students.

“Basically we would have the Randolph County Technical Center, we would have Elkins High, we would have a Pre-K 8, or it could be a Pre-K 6, and Elkins High becomes a 6 through 12,” Dilly said. “And then we could be looking at Tygarts Valley as a Pre-K to 12 building, or a Pre-K to eight building depending on what these triggers are.

“So as we start to look at these and particular outcomes, we want to make sure we are thinking about how we trigger this and make sure that we are not taking away from students’ needs with positions, and making sure we are supporting that long term investment.”

Dilly said he believes it makes the most sense that a Pre-K building be built in the area of the Midland Elementary School.

“When we are thinking about efficiency and thinking about logistics, the best thing we can do is create a campus based model,” Dilly said. “Because then we are sharing one parking lot and one set of mowing. It increases efficiency around a lot of the layers of maintenance and upkeep.”

Dilly told the BOE that he wanted to share the information he had gathered before the two sides started thinking about and developing a plan for a bond and excess levy call.

“I do feel, as we continue to shrink, we are going to have to be moving to the four-school model somewhere around the 2045 range,” Dilly said. “So we should be taking the subsequent steps to ensure we are taking care of students between now and then.”

The next Randolph County Board of Education meeting will be March 17 at 5:30 p.m.