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When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defied White House signals that she not stop in Taiwan on her valedictory tour of Asian capitals, she ignited the worst diplomatic U.S.-China row in decades.
How did last week's events turn out for the U.S.?
Writes The New York Times: Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan began with her "plane departing from Kuala Lumpur and heading southeast toward the Indonesian part of Borneo, then turning north to fly along the eastern part of the Philippines. A more direct -- and shorter -- route would have been to fly northeast in a direct route over the South China Sea to Taiwan."
Pelosi's avoidance of the South China Sea might have something to do with China's claim to 90% of it and China's control of islets in that sea that Beijing has converted into air, missile and naval bases.
After 19 hours in Taiwan, the speaker flew to South Korea, where her reception was described as "cool." President Yoon Suk Yeol, though at home in Seoul when Pelosi arrived, did not meet with her, but instead held a 40-minute phone conversation.
South Korea, like its neighbors, is anxious not to offend China. Consider this anomaly here:
South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand all rely on the United States as their No. 1 ally in defending them against China, but all boast of China as their No. 1 trading partner.
How did Beijing react to Pelosi's 19 hours in Taiwan? With warplanes, warships and ballistic missiles, China conducted live-fire exercises from Thursday noon to Sunday noon, at six sites surrounding Taiwan. One Chinese missile flew over Taiwan. Five landed in the exclusive economic zone of Japan.
The effect of these live firings at and around Taiwan was that of a naval quarantine or blockade. Ships and planes of other nations avoided air corridors and waters being targeted by Chinese forces.
China also announced diplomatic and economic sanctions against the U.S. and Taiwan, canceling talks with Washington on climate change and military relations.
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was the triggering event that ignited the Chinese war games against Taiwan. But these air, naval and missile exercises were not planned in a day. They appear to have been prepared as a dress rehearsal for how China intends to go about bringing Taiwan home to the motherland, when President Xi Jinping decides the time is right.
Pelosi spent the rest of her trip insisting that her visit represented no change in U.S. policy on Taiwan. Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, she said, "Our representation here is not about changing the status quo," adding that Beijing is "probably using our visit as an excuse."
As the live firing went on for 72 hours, the White House echoed Pelosi that the U.S. recognizes Beijing's claim that Taiwan is a "part of China" and does not contest that claim. Nor have we any intention of shifting U.S. policy on Taiwan as it has been pursued since Jimmy Carter broke U.S. diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979.