Trump’s gains among minorities historic s
Did anyone expect, when they heard the candidate’s announcement at the base of the Trump Tower escalator in June 2015, that nine years later, he would be elected to a second term with sharp increases in Republican percentages from nonwhite people — Latinos especially, but also Black and Asian people?
Opponents and commentators blandly call President-elect Donald Trump a racist without bothering with documentation — although, in my view, being a racist is one bad thing that Trump is not. He’s a New Yorker with minority ancestry (German, Scottish) who has mingled with and made deals with people of every origin all his life, in his trek from Queens to Manhattan to palatial Mar-a-Lago and his demotic (that means of the people, not “demonic”) rallies across the country.
But in his third general election campaign, Trump has won increased support from groups that his opponents and most commentators never thought he could. The 2024 CNN exit poll shows Trump winning 17% of Black people to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 82%, tying her 48% to 48% among Hispanic people, and beating her 50% to 47% among Asians. Similar results come from the Fox News survey — Trump won 16% from Black people, 43% from Latinos, and 41% from Asians — and NBC’s exit poll — 13% from Black people, 46% from Latinos, and 39% from Asians.
In the seven target states, Trump’s percentages among Black people lagged, but turnout was down, suggesting ambivalence among many Black voters, while his percentages tended higher, sometimes over 50%, among target-state Latino and Asian people.
All these numbers show progress for him over the Biden-Harris administration. CNN’s 2016 and 2020 exit polls show gains have been greatest among men, converting a 69% deficit among Black men to 56%, and converting a 31% Democratic margin among Latino men against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to a 12% lead over Harris.
To say Trump’s support among these voters is unprecedented is un-Trumpian understatement. Exit polls going back to 1980 showed the Republican percentage among Hispanic people rising to 35% only once, for George W. Bush in 2004, and never rising above 14% among Black people. It’s wobbled around more from Asian voters, who were not numerous enough to track 40 years ago.
In the long run of history, it’s unusual for one demographic segment to vote around 90% for one political party. But it’s been the norm for Black people, who respond to the cries of “unity” one has heard from Black politicos and preachers for decades on end.
For members of a minority group ineluctably subject to discrimination and humiliating mistreatment, as Black people were under slavery and segregation, it makes sense to maximize your political clout by casting almost all your votes for one side.