When it comes to contesting statewide and legislative races, the West Virginia Democratic Party should be commended for its candidate recruitment efforts heading into the 2026 elections.

I don’t say that because I have a specific bias one way or another. But I do believe that a healthy two-party system is important to making our democratic republic work, because the political parties hold each other accountable.

According to the state Democratic Party, there are 22 Democratic candidates seeking nomination to 17 of 19 state Senate seats on the ballot for the May primary, some of whom have no opponents, while there are 109 Democratic House of Delegates candidates, with all 100 seats on the ballot.

There is no doubt that West Virginia is now a Republican state, a slow slide that accelerated in 2015 when Republicans first took the majority in the Legislature and again after the election of President Donald Trump in 2016. Republicans captured the majority of voter registrations in 2021, and GOP registration has continued to rise ever since.

However, what goes up must come down. It took more than 80 years for Republicans to regain majorities in the Legislature and with voter registration. But there are some who believe Republican control has peaked. And some see the closing of the Republican primary elections this year to unaffiliated voters as a sign of a slow slide back in the direction of the Democratic Party.

Just to be clear, the month-on-month voter registration numbers do not bear this out yet. But nationally, many expect a blue wave benefiting Democratic candidates. Trump is once again cratering in popularity, though he certainly remains popular in West Virginia. But could that blue wave splash some water on West Virginia? It’s possible.

Now, West Virginia will not lose its Republican supermajority anytime soon. But could the Democratic Party pick up a handful of House of Delegates seats or even one or two in the Senate? It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. I don’t make predictions. But even a few legislative pickups could give Democratic lawmakers the parliamentary ability in 2027 and 2028 to slow down legislation they believe to be bad.

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I’ve got to say, I’ve seen many things in my more than 16 years under this golden dome and more than 25 years being a West Virginia political junky. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sitting governor actively recruit primary candidates to challenge sitting Republican lawmakers at the same time that governor wants those lawmakers to consider particular legislation.

But that is exactly what happened last weekend, with several incumbent Republicans in the House and Senate facing GOP primary challengers recruited either directly by Gov. Patrick Morrisey or on his behalf by groups such as Americans for Prosperity.

This is while Morrisey has a 5% personal income tax cut baked into his fiscal year 2027 general revenue budget with a bill to codify that cut, returning $125 million to taxpayers when fully implemented. Plus, Morrisey has put the onus on the Legislature to find a way to pay for an additional 5% reduction — a total 10% personal income tax cut. That’s the potential to return $250 million to taxpayers, but also take $250 million in revenue away from the budget.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are already skeptical of the numbers being used to justify even the 5% personal income tax cut, let alone a full 10% cut. But why should Republican lawmakers go to bat for these cuts knowing the governor possibly recruited someone to primary them?

Forget the tax cut. The Senate has only passed three of the 14 bills introduced on behalf of Morrisey to date. The House has only passed two of 13 Morrisey bills in that body to date. The session is still young, though Thursday marks day 30, the halfway point. Lawmakers will obviously pass the budget bill, but other Morrisey bills could easily not see the light of day.

It probably doesn’t help that a press release went out last Wednesday saying two pro-Morrisey political action committees – Morrisey 2024 and Black Bear PAC – had a combined $3.38 million in cash-on-hand after fundraising efforts in 2025.

“Pro-Morrisey groups enter 2026 with the resources to encourage the Legislature to advance (Morrisey’s) pocketbook agenda of lower income taxes, his 50 for 50 energy plan and key economic development initiatives,” the press release stated.

That sure sounds like they are threatening to spend money going after Republican incumbent lawmakers who don’t show sufficient fealty to Morrisey and his legislative agenda, such as it is.

Morrisey is more than one year into his four-year term, but the Legislature can turn him into a lame duck governor for the next three years, especially if his primary candidate recruitment plan backfires.

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I can’t speak to any internal polling Morrisey and his supporters have. But looking at the Morning Consult quarterly tracker of approval rating for governors, Morrisey spent the first three quarters of 2025 with a 52% approval rating among West Virginians, with his disapproval numbers peaking at 34% in quarter three (Morrisey ended the first quarter at the end of February 2025 with a 28% disapproval rating).

As of the end of the fourth quarter, Morrisey had a 54% approval rating – a slight uptick – and a slight downtick in disapproval numbers (32%). Morrisey ranks among the middle of the pack when it comes to his fellow governors – not the most popular but not the most unpopular. By comparison, former Gov. Jim Justice stayed mostly in the top 10 of most popular governors in Morning Consult’s quarterly tracker.

Morrisey can either go up or down from here.