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Donald Trump should be, by any measure, not as unpopular as he is, but he has a propensity for shooting himself in the foot and he remains unpopular. Despite economically flush times, he appears as the national crank in chief. He advocates arming teachers, despite having heard the news that Broward County Sheriff's officers who were armed were reluctant to risk their lives at the Parkland, Florida, high school. If these armed officers were reluctant, would a teacher be braver?
It is as if Trump thinks the presidency is like being a regular at Breakfast Club, where you can vent to your heart's content. His approach seems geared to raising blood pressures and polarization. Although this is not intrinsically bad -- it is more likely to bring heat rather than light. But at least he says something -- Republicans in Congress appear even more rigid on any issue, from guns to DACA.
Certainly it is a stratagem that did not appeal to Ronald Reagan. Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate in economics, once crisply summed up Reagan's approach: "He is a principled man, which you want; he is not a rigidly principled man, which you don't want." Worse, Trump is a teaser and a deal breaker, inviting people into his inner sanctum to be props in an elaborate scene. "Send me a bill," he said about DACA -- they did and he denounced them for following his advice. He made a big display about getting rid of "bump stocks" and then benignly applauded Wayne Lapierre's defense of such devices.
Of course if Trump can score cheap points with such chicanery he feels his base will be thrilled. But his credibility is corroded; the only thing to prevent an opinion free fall is the economy, which is deceptively strong-looking. Unemployment at recent lows and healthy stock prices are usually signs that a boom had reached its limits. If the economy slips, Trump will have nothing, with no good will to trade with.
But for the moment the Trumpish wing of the GOP is blazing away at the "Deep State" and he's convinced that it is damming the tide of history. Paul Ryan is a happy supporter because reversing the present is what he lives for. He is as good at playing charades as Trump is. The Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, is also one to imply deals then withdraw his expressed proposals. This government by cleverness may be viable in good times but how useful in a time of emergency?
What if Trump had to rally a nation, would he resort to cheap rhetoric and even cheaper twittery? Raw meat to a hardened base might be good at election time but it is not good every single day of the rolling year. These are probably the best days for Trump. People are seeing some returns on tax cuts. For the time being the future looks good -- but what if he comes to an end? Presidents require credibility in the short run and Trump has none. Again, he has a tiny margin for error.
But he has no worries when it comes to his party. He is them and they are him. Convinced that America was in crisis, they flocked to his nativism. Blithe and blind confidence that America is not declining but coming out of an era of "carnage." Seems like a weak foundation to base a government.