Given that it has been ten years since Donald Trump came down the escalator in the Tower that bears his name, it is appropriate to measure his impact on American society, culture, and politics. There is some peril in measuring a presidency that has not ended, but perhaps it is worth a shot.

So far, Trump has won only one battle, which has been his complete conquest of the Republican Party. Despite every device being used to prevent “the Donald” from actually doing what he prefers, he has managed to unite most Republicans under his banner. However, he had some difficulty persuading most to support his tariff policy and immigration measures during his first term. And, he lost control of Congress from 2019 to 2021.

But his election in 2024 gave Trump another chance, and he swept the GOP old guard away, leaving the John Cornyns, Lindsey Grahams, and Mitch McConnells in the dust. He selected a cabinet he desired and pushed an agenda that matched his rhetoric on the campaign trail. The President seemingly had everything in place; nothing could stop him from passing his brand not only on the GOP, but also on the US government.

Then came Elon Musk, who jumped on Trump’s bandwagon belatedly, but brought much cash and energy into his campaign. After the victory, the Musketeers celebrated with chainsaws and bluster.

This is where, with all due apologies to Don McLean, the “music dies.” Musk, anti-tariff and anti-populist to the core, led the DOGE contingent, essentially, toward a repudiation of Trump. MAGA, Steve Bannon style, had been geared against tech giants such as Musk and Jeff Bezos. Suddenly, the President was stuck with a meaner version of the “Contract with America.”

Musk then recreated the old Ayn Randist libertarianism of the old Republican conservative movement. Forget Trump’s defense of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; the Musk formula was geared toward bread and water, not milk and honey. When Musk did not get his way, he called Trump’s already austere budget an abomination because the cuts were too small. With Musk, the empire struck back, and MAGA Populism was dealt a blow.

Suddenly, Trump had to backtrack to an old standard — immigration. Moreover, he could not pick his battlefield skillfully and was stuck with Los Angeles to make his point on “sanctuary cities.” This seems to repeat President Franklin Pierce, who sent Federal Troops into Boston in 1854 to seize Anthony Burns, who had lived as a freeman. The fugitive slave law of 1850 nullified the personal liberty laws enacted in the 1840s to protect runaways. Pierce got his way, but the experience radicalized many.

If he is not careful, Trump will find himself exactly where he was in 2020. His achievement would be a massive tax cut to the wealthy and little else. As such, he will probably leave his supporters wondering what it was all for.