Tariff obsession
Donald Trump’s tariff obsession may well swallow up his administration. Despite opposition from the business press, including the Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, Trump is convinced that restricting international trade is essential to achieve his “golden age”. Combined with his obsession against America’s elite universities and his immigration stances, he has gone to war against the American establishment.
Some presidents, such as Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy, have opposed “malefactors of great wealth” and those who prefer free trade and liberal (in the old style) economics. Perhaps lesser known than JFK, who criticized US steel for raising prices in 1962. He also tried to lower tariffs by passing a new trade regime to encourage international trade. Kennedy met initially with resistance, triggering a brief slump on Wall Street known as the “flash crash”.
Trump differs from most progressive presidents in that he is trying to roll back the clock. He resembles Andrew Jackson in his obsessive attitudes and prejudices. For instance, Jackson made his war against the Bank of the United States and its president, Nicholas Biddle, in 1832, personal. He called the BUS the “monster bank” and pressed, eventually destroying the institution by defunding “Mr. Biddle’s bank.”
Did this make Jackson any more popular than Trump? Absolutely not, he pressed the Specie Circular, which made gold and silver in 1836, the only means to purchase federal land. In doing so, he undercut the “pet banks” that emerged after the BUS renewal expired. Jackson’s policy caused an inflation of prices after paying with cheaper bank notes led to a 40% increase in sales. His conservative instincts made it more expensive, leading to a “panic” in 1837–Trump, whose fondness for cryptocurrency belies his fondness for gold. Mixing populism with traditional economic theory can lead to disaster.
Ultimately, the United States Bank was restored during the Civil War. Tariffs were a hit in the 19th century, and the United States suffered many financial “panics” in 1873, 1893, and late 1907. In between, there were lesser events, whatever you call them, panics, depression, or recession, tariffs led to economic dislocation. And of course, the granddaddy of them all, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1931, exacerbated the 1930s depression. Yes, tariffs protected jobs only if the economy provided those jobs.
Milton Friedman, the prophet of free markets, speaking of Ronald Reagan, observed, “Reagan is a principled man, which you want; he is not an overly principled man, which you do not want.”
Trump has a sincerely held idea, but he must be flexible. He can learn from FDR, who in 1937 believed he needed to cut back on federal spending. He did, and the economy went into a swoon. FDR called it a recession because he did not (and understandably so) want it to be a depression.
Again, mixing overheated government spending while clinging to traditional economic theory can lead to disaster.