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Every day is an adventure with Donald Trump in the White House. One week, he appears to distance himself from his MAGA base and cozy up to neoconservatives and RINO regulars. Give him another seven days, and he cozies up to the Steve Bannons and the "influencers" of the ultra-right. He is predictable only in that he is as emphatic in endorsing a position and just as strident when he repudiates it a week later.
A good example of this is his rapid rehabilitation of the "Intelligence Referee" Tulsi Gabbard. Less than a month ago, he declared that she was "wrong" on her favorable assessment of Vladimir Putin. Then comes MAGA's reaction to the "big beautiful bill" and the Jeffrey Epstein affair, and Trump begins to complain of the age-old controversy over Russia, which was revived by none other than Gabbard. After seemingly ready to allow Lindsey Graham to have his war over Ukraine, he gives Putin 50 extra days to make peace.
It should surprise no one that Trump has a herky-jerky style in public affairs, which, commentators often overlook, is a wonder. This style is both a strength and a weakness. The strength lies in the fact that Trump is not an ideologue who acts on some strong, arbitrary principles, and therefore he creates an uncontrollable crisis. If only George W. Bush had been as skeptical and avoided the disastrous Middle East War. The weakness is that it keeps everyone guessing, and sometimes, though not as much as people think, consistency is a virtue.
That Trump can change his mind is beneficial, but if it occurs at the speed of light or the internet, it can be confusing. In his conduct of foreign policy, Trump relies primarily on Marco Rubio, his Secretary of State, and Scott Bessent, his Secretary of the Treasury. Rubio, despite his Senate record as a hawk, has behaved shrewdly and wisely, avoiding conflicts. Bessent has tempered the policy toward the People's Republic of China, using economic realities as leverage. Now this is over the objections of the MAGA crowd that desire a soft line toward Russia, but a hard line toward Beijing. Stay tuned to their reaction to this pragmatic shift.
Trump ended a potential disaster in Iran by banging diplomatic pots and pans, bombing nuclear sites, and stopping Israel's assault on Tehran. He also stared down Bibi Netanyahu's intervention in Syria. This is very much like President Dwight Eisenhower's policy of "brinkmanship," which hinted at a larger conflict but stopped at the water's edge. But it also kicked diplomatic issues down the road for his successors to solve. Nevertheless, it speaks well for Trump that he looks before leaping.
Domestically, he has heeded the script handed him by Russell Vought, the author of Project 2025. But even there, he hints that he might rescind the cuts to Medicaid, especially when it injures his red-state cluster. It is clear that Trump wanted to pass a bill even at the expense of details. Given his penchant for changing course, he probably will correct congressional overreach.