Wanting it both ways
If there is a drawback to Donald Trump’s foreign policy, it is that he wants it both ways. For example, his approach to Ukraine resembles the reaction many Americans had to Vietnam in the late sixties. Surveys in 1969 found that one response was “I want peace, but I don’t want to lose.” Currently, Trump seems to be in that lane.
Vladimir Putin’s summer offensive appears to have enjoyed a measure of success. The defense network of hedgehog fortresses with complicated trenches and interlocking lines so assiduously built up by the Ukrainian military has become frail. Any breakthrough could potentially result in the collapse of the front. Perhaps this explains why Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump have been anxious for a settlement.
Furthermore, Trump has damaged relations with India and its Leader, Narendra Modi, by slapping a 50% tariff on that country ostensibly because it purchases Russian oil.
This seems to be going around your elbow to get to your thumb, but Trump insists. Not only has it thrust India into China’s orbit, but it has also confused Russia, which is on excellent terms with New Delhi. Yet at the same time, Trump is not anxious for a ceasefire.
Confusing matters even more is that Trump praised Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, to his South Korean counterpart. Forget that the North Koreans sent soldiers to fight in Ukraine, but it is also dependent on China and Russia. To say the least, it is all very confusing. Moreover, Trump is courting Pakistan, which has never been on good terms with India.
All this scrumming makes Putin sort of a referee. Ukraine brings little to the table, except for its relationship with some European Union members. Otherwise, Ukraine has very little credit in Asia or Africa. Joe Biden did enjoy good relations with India, and Modi was an admirer of Trump. All that goes out the window as relations further deteriorate. Only if Trump makes a dramatic gesture will this be settled.
One of the gestures would be a visit to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping, Putin, and Modi. They are meeting soon at an economic conference.
Perhaps Trump will make up his mind. But as conditions become unglued in Ukraine, he needs to either be a realist or risk losing it all.
Although Trump seems generally on a pragmatic course, he has a real estate broker, Steve Witkoff, and not a Henry Kissinger, doing his bidding. Confusing matters, he keeps Keith Kellogg carrying water for Kyiv. It’s too much of a guessing game, and it doesn’t help Trump if he is distracted. Sending troops into American cities does not help.
This drama act is wearing thin, or simply put, Trump needs to get serious, or he will potentially lose control of the situation.