When considering who would assist the Saudi Arabian oil industry, King Ibn Saud stated in 1933 that he preferred Americans. When asked why, he said, “They work hard! They get the oil, and they don’t get into politics.”

This would surprise most U.S. citizens in 2025. It seems that all the United States does is meddle in politics, particularly in the Middle East.

Of course, this was before the establishment of the State of Israel. From 1948 onward, the U.S. has had to balance its oil interests in Arabia with its commitment to the Jewish state. This juxtaposition of their interests has been the chief project of Donald Trump’s Middle Eastern policy.

This concept gains some substance through the Abraham Accords. It is based on President Trump’s conviction that there is no problem that cannot be cured by commerce. Indeed, it is superior to Joe Biden’s feckless approach, which stressed human rights but also failed to secure them. He then declared his preference for Israel, describing himself as a Zionist on October 7, 2023. He would scold Benjamin Netanyahu but continue to send money and weapons.

Trump’s approach is to return, at least in part, to the positive assessment offered by King Saud in 1933. Forget the past, focus on a prosperous future. However, he tends to devalue religion and embraces a more business model than a spiritual path. It beats bankrolling the likes of Osama bin Laden, whom the United States aided in the 1980s because of the Soviet Union’s Afghanistan invasion.

But he faces challenges, particularly in the case of Gaza, which Israeli hard-liners would love to make a part of “Greater Israel.” This increases tensions between Trump and his Arab allies. Preferable to Biden’s piddling policy, but not particularly a sure thing. The problem is the preferences of the US Congress, particularly among members of the Freedom Caucus, the religious right, and some Democrats.

They have a myriad of reasons for supporting Israel, some contradictory motives, such as Palestinian statehood versus others that have religious devotion to the holy land. Trump’s approach ideally would be to go with the money, which emphasizes mutual prosperity. But many of the pro-Israel blocs of any stripe have negative views toward Arabs and Muslims in general. For Trump, this will be a difficult needle to thread. It has befuddled many American presidents, but Trump is the most vocal promoter of the commercial option since Dwight Eisenhower.

But as usual, his best laid plans depend on the actions of a Hamas sniper or an Israeli pilot. The ceasefire has already shown its fragility amid attacks in Rafah by both sides, and it is not at all certain that it will hold. But give Trump the benefit of the doubt; he is gambling that peace is preferable to war.