To project onto the New Year, political prognostications are always hazardous. Unless one has a crystal ball handy, one can never be sure what will develop. However, you can speculate based on past events about what might happen in Congress and at the White House.

Donald Trump faces a critical period, particularly in the first quarter of 2026. Before Christmas, he received good news in that the economy grew at a healthy 4.3%. But at the exact moment, the Supreme Court ruled that he acted unconstitutionally when he dispatched National Guard troops to Chicago. Additionally, the report’s accuracy was questioned due to the government shutdowns in October and November 2025.

Though Trump has usually had his way with the Supreme Court, there are troublesome signs that they might be more Libertarian than MAGA. Two cases, one involving Birth Right Citizenship and Trump’s efforts to bypass Congress with executive orders regarding tariffs, might derail two of his signature issues. It might be the most significant test of presidential power since Watergate.

Former Heritage Foundation members have editorialized in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, and have taken issue with immigration while supporting free trade. Kevin Roberts, a former head of the Heritage Foundation, went so far as calling “free trade” the essence of the Conservative movement. This is perhaps a hint of what the Supreme Court will do. If they did, it would place Trump in a predicament not unlike the one Franklin D. Roosevelt faced when his entire first New Deal was shot down by the Court, specifically the National Recovery Act, due to antitrust concerns.

Now, this would not necessarily mean that Trump had been reduced to a full Lame Duck. However, it would go a long way in discrediting his advisors, such as Stephen Miller, Peter Navarro, and Stephen Bannon. It would be a complete triumph for the Republican Old Guard. This would place Trump on the horns of a dilemma. He could curse his bad fortune, or he could adjust. Franklin Roosevelt moved to the Left, Bill Clinton tacked to the Right, and Richard Nixon, in 1971, moved directly to the Center.

This would test Trump’s fealty to principle. In the case of the tariffs, he could submit them to Congress for approval. But if the Supreme Court ruled against him, he would probably face some difficulties. Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans would probably take Roberts’s “free trade” suggestion to heart. This would place Trump in a difficult spot, but he could take a cherry-picking approach to tariffs and make a case to the American people. In other words, a new course might invigorate his presidency.

What will not work is an obdurate, bad-tempered approach to a setback. FDR did not get much traction when he denounced “the nine old men on the Supreme Court” in 1937. But he managed to salvage some of his old program with individual pieces of legislation. In other words, Trump needs to legislate rather than attempt decrees, known as executive orders.

For him, this would be a novel approach to governance, but it might allow him to clean house at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.