This had the potential to be a foreign policy for the ages, but it now appears that Donald Trump has created one that only confuses. If he has a solution to the problems besetting the world, Trump has yet to articulate one, except to coerce, blockade, and threaten. From Iran to Ukraine, Cuba, and Venezuela, the Trump Doctrine resembles more a performative policy linked to a floating craps game.

Although he points to some successes, Venezuela and Gaza, to name two, are all wrapped in caveats. The Maduro regime still exists in the form of Delcy Rodríguez, and Israel still has designs on Gaza and the West Bank. Same with Ukraine, where Trump finds himself stymied by Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s refusal to face reality. Even Iran, playing with a weak hand, keeps Trump offshore and in suspense. With the Supreme Court decision on tariffs, world leaders must wonder whether he has the power he claims. For these figures, Trump does not seem the most important voice in the United States, only the loudest.

Which is a shame, because Trump had a few good insights into foreign policy. He refused to react to a foreign crisis with violence at the outset. When he did resort to force, he was measured as in Venezuela. His response in Syria showed wisdom, and the Abraham Accords appeared creative. Now it seems ad hoc, making it up as he goes along. As with Lyndon Johnson, he is willing to ratchet up force in Iran as LBJ did with North Vietnam. Moreover, as with Venezuela, Trump is uneasy with associating with democratic forces, preferring the mullahs to the Iranian opposition.

Understandably, he abhors nation-building given its deleterious results, but the Venezuelan opposition won elections, and for a time, the Iranian opposition controlled the streets.

Trump squanders time and whatever advantage he might have had. Oddly, he refuses to get tough on allies, if they are still allies, like Ukraine, simply because he is unable to close a deal. The art of the deal in diplomacy is different from making side business arrangements that benefit him. He has a mishmash of negotiators, with the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, obsessed with becoming a new Simon Bolivar, and Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner, who can negotiate but are restrained by the boss.

Whichever way you measure the situation, the United States is paralyzed. Trump seems unable even to put the NATO alliance online. As with Henry Ford’s vessel, the Oscar II, he started with high hopes and ended up with a bickering set of peace activists and a sick captain. Designed to bring World War I to an end in 1915, Ford naively relied on his goodwill. As with Trump, Ford tried a different approach and became known for piloting a “ship of fools.” But Trump seems as lost at sea as Ford.

Tantrums will not work in foreign policy any more than tariffs will. Trump’s descriptions and exaggerated threats only confuse strength with drama. Trump truly has an imperial approach, but he has no idea how to consolidate power. As he drifts between doldrums and disaster, Trump appears to depend on his lucky star more than rationality.