Judicial defeat
The Supreme Court dealt Donald Trump’s program a significant judicial defeat. By a 6-3 margin, it denied the President power to unilaterally levy tariffs without congressional approval. Principally, it limits Trump’s use of the International Emergency Powers Act, which allows tariffs to be imposed during a “national emergency.” Jimmy Carter signed the law on Dec. 28, 1977. It was meant to curb Presidential power, but the Trump Justice Department incorrectly interpreted it as granting the President fiat authority.
For Trump, the decision closely resembled the defeat dealt to Franklin Roosevelt’s National Recovery Act in June 1935. FDR rebounded from the setback by changing his approach, proposing Social Security, a tax increase on the wealthy, and affirming labor’s right to organize. He changed his New Deal by shifting it to the Left rather than pushing the NRA, which used codes to pick winners in the marketplace. The first New Deal was geared to guarantee markets and allow capital accumulation, and the second was to strengthen workers and the downtrodden.
Trump, who fancies himself in the mold of Andrew Jackson and Roosevelt–he has both their portraits prominently displayed in the White House – might not be capable of emulating these predecessors. FDR did call the Supreme Court the “horse and buggy” court and, in 1937, unsuccessfully attempted to add new members. Trump has already denounced the six members of the Court as a “disgrace,” but he has a problem: he picked three members of the present court, and he is not in the right party, because the Court reflects Ronald Reagan’s preference for the rule of law and free trade.
Of course, Trump could resubmit the tariffs to Congress, but he risks dividing the GOP. Prior to the 1980’s, Republicans advocated selective tariffs to protect industries, primarily textiles. After World War II, US dominance was so pervasive that a blanket tariff was considered unnecessary. By the 1970’s, electronics and automobiles, primarily from Japan and West Germany, began to challenge the US, prompting a revisit of tariffs. Democrats, until NAFTA, were divided between free traders and protectionists. In the 1980’s, Democrats were supportive of organized labor, which supported tariffs. After NAFTA, they joined the free trade consensus. Republicans abjured tariffs and made “free trade” a cornerstone of the party.
MAGA and Trump resurrected the issue. During the first term, Trump avoided pushing too hard on the issue. His second go-around, he has made it a priority, but, suspecting that Congress had a distaste for them, he simply relied on decrees that the US euphemistically calls executive orders.
Chances are, he will try to bully Congress even in his weakened state. No doubt he fears that his immigration program and his attempt to end birthright citizenship also may go the way of his tariff powers. Trump now appears to be weakened, confused, and bedeviled by failure. With the decision, the retribution campaign and “shock and awe” appear to have failed to overthrow the “administrative state.” Bluster, brag, and bluff lost; the traditional institution has the stage back now. A change of course is required.
