Tariff fallout
With yet another round of tariffs taking effect this week — this time on cabinets and other furniture, timber and lumber — the White House insists that its policies are about “fairness” and “reciprocity.” The evidence now tells a different story of higher prices for Americans, lower margins for U.S. firms, collapsing exports in flagship industries, investment paralysis and mounting risks of an economic slowdown.
Start with exports. American goods are losing ground fast. A recent KPMG survey finds that “60% of businesses reported decreased overseas sales” in the first six months of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. For instance, U.S. liquor exports tumbled 9% in the second quarter of this year, with steep declines across the European Union, Canada, Britain and Japan, which together buy about 70% of these exports. In another example, China — once a key customer for U.S. farm goods — has turned instead to Argentina and other suppliers, and total U.S. soybean exports are down 23% this year.
Smaller companies are also adversely affected. A valve and gas component maker in Napa Valley just announced that it will shut down a plant and discharge 237 employees, citing weak overseas demand linked to tariffs. Let’s not forget the upcoming Supreme Court case of V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, where U.S. importers and resellers of wine, electronics kits, apparel and other goods argued that the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs disrupted their supply chains, forced steep price increases and threatened their viability.
American consumers, too, are paying the price. KPMG finds that nearly half of American companies have already raised prices because of tariffs; two-thirds have passed at least part of those costs on to shoppers; and nearly 40% have paused hiring, with a third cutting jobs.
CEOs overwhelmingly expect tariffs to weigh on business for years. Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. consumers are now footing 55% of the total tariff bill, while foreign exporters bear only a sliver of the costs.
Sometimes, though, the cost we pay isn’t higher prices — it’s no product at all. One of Europe’s largest farm-equipment manufacturers, Krone, has halted U.S. sales after a new wave of “steel derivative” tariffs required exporters to document the origin, weight and value of every screw, nut and bolt in their machinery. This bureaucratic tangle is so extreme that many European manufacturers are simply giving up. For American farmers waiting on harvesting equipment, that means delays, shortages and higher costs down the line.
The chaos doesn’t stop there. UPS has been drowning in a customs backlog since the administration scrapped the longstanding rule that allows imports costing less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. Thousands of packages, from Japanese tea to engagement rings, are stuck or even “disposed of” because of missing tariff paperwork. It’s a vivid reminder that protectionism jams everyday commerce.
No product is too small. Italian pasta makers warn that Trump’s new duties, some nearing 92%, could double the price of a $4 box of rigatoni. Italian newspapers have dubbed it “Trump’s war against pasta.”