Donald Trump declares that the United States “has all the cards” in its dispute with Iran. However, it begs the question of just how Trump is playing them. For a man who holds a superior hand, he seems ever so eager to announce his advantage. Despite nearly 10 weeks of his “quasi-war” with Iran, Trump is doing nothing to close the game.

Richard Nixon offered insight into what negotiations should look like when he addressed Southern delegates at the Republican convention on Aug. 7, 1968. In some cases, particularly with the “madman theory” Trump shares with Nixon, a preference for trying to convince his opponent that he might resort to extreme methods of coercion. Where they differ is in the way they do it. In Miami, Nixon stated, “I learned something; when a guy didn’t have the cards, he talked mighty big.” This is where Trump deviates from Nixonian diplomacy.

Trump tends to “talk big,” whereas Nixon remained calm. Nixon related that it was his experience: “When the man had the cards, he just sat there – had that cold look in his eyes.” Nixon, an excellent poker player, might insinuate in private that he might go all the way militarily, but would not “talk about the fact that we will bomb you.” Tactics were not to be advertised, certainly not in the way Trump does regularly.

Despite these differences, Trump and Nixon do share a similar view of the world. As with Nixon, Trump is no fan of prolonged conflict or nation-building. He changed very little in Venezuela; instead, he contented himself with removing Nicolas Maduro. Indeed, he smartly ignored the Venezuelan opposition, which seemed unable to govern the country. He clearly does not prefer to engage in long conflicts. And at present, he essentially adopts a siege mentality in his approach to Iran, essentially determined to wait until Tehran capitulates.

However, this carries many risks, as Iran could improve its diplomatic position. Pakistan, which hosted the peace talks, has a large Shia population that resents the killing of Mullahs in Iran. Moreover, Imran Khan, although he remains in prison, remains an alternative for Pakistanis resentful of military rule. Add to that that Islamabad possesses nuclear weapons, which should give Washington pause.

Perhaps more worrisome is that Beijing is increasing its influence in the Persian Gulf. Trump is slated to meet Xi Jinping in mid-May. Moscow is also trying to extend its influence, as time may not be in President Trump’s favor.

Given that Washington has three aircraft carriers in the area and ground troops positioned near the Gulf of Oman, time is an important consideration. Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Perigord, Napoleon I’s foreign minister, surmised the risk smartly: “You can do many things with a bayonet, except sit on them.”

To leave a large force exposed for too long is to court disaster. And there are always unexpected and unwelcome events. Whatever Trump does, he must do it sooner rather than later.