Beware of sharp historical parallels, especially when it comes to current affairs. The Jeffrey Epstein situation is an example in that it represents a potential minor problem becoming a major event, comparable to the Watergate break-in. However, that is where the comparison stops with the scandal that brought down President Richard Nixon in August 1974.

Democrats were far stronger in 1973 than they are now. Despite George McGovern’s landslide loss to Nixon, Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress. Moreover, the Supreme Court was far more liberal than it is today. Remember, the Supreme Court ruled that Nixon had to hand over the tapes and established that he was not subject to executive privilege protection. The Supreme Court that exists today would be far friendlier to Donald Trump. Indeed, their judgment corresponds to Nixon’s answer to David Frost in 1977, “If the president does it, then it is not illegal.”

The rules are significantly different in 2025 than in 1973, and the judicial balance of power has shifted substantially. However, Trump’s problems lie in the fact that any issue with Epstein does not involve presidential power. However, the Supreme Court of the present day hints that a president cannot be tried while president. Again, facile comparisons to Watergate are not warranted, given the vastly different realities.

What threatens Trump is that his reputation might sink among his core MAGA base. A few presidents lost their influence without losing their office. John Tyler repudiated the Whigs’ policies, which he endorsed as a Vice-Presidential Candidate. When William Henry Harrison died thirty days after his inauguration, Tyler, as a former Democrat, became a Whig President. When he deserted the Whigs, he was disowned. Zachary Taylor, also a Whig, double-crossed his Southern allies and fell in with antislavery Northern Whigs. He, too, was repudiated. Add to the list Andrew Johnson, and you get the list of departied presidents. Trump is more than a Republican president; he is the leader of a movement. Richard Nixon was a Republican to his core who tried and failed to mold his “Silent Majority” into something more than a re-election strategy. If Trump proves to be only an opportunist who used MAGA as a vehicle to power, not as a force for change, then he, too, is a candidate for early irrelevance.

He could also be a target for MAGA “influencers” who claim he “betrayed” his supporters. Robert Welch of the John Birch Society implied that President Dwight D. Eisenhower was a communist and a “globalist.”

If Trump becomes another member of the “deep state,” he is added to the long list of right-wing leaders who broke with the rank and file. This list includes Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and his son, George W.

Although Trump has never claimed to adhere to any set of governing principles, except for “common sense,” he will nevertheless be held accountable for the views of his followers.

However, unless Trump is dealt a hefty blow in the Epstein affair, it is unlikely that his hold on MAGA will end, but it might loosen his grip.