Grim forecast
For the Republican Party, the current forecast is grim. In Texas, a Democrat won a state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump won by seventeen points in 2024. Taylor Rehmet, the Democrat, won by fourteen points. It was a referendum on the Lone Star state’s belligerent Governor Greg Abbott and Trump’s immigration policy. And this is in the wake of extreme gerrymandering.
Of course, the GOP will largely ignore these storm clouds. From Mike Johnson, whose arrogance embarrasses even the most hardened partisans, and Lindsey Graham, who is busy trying to get money to recompense for the seizure of his phone records. Not to mention the general silence on the Epstein affair. Clearly, the party is tone-deaf, depending not on politicians like Thomas Massie and Rand Paul but relying on petulant spokesmen such as Stephen Miller and Attorney General Pam Bondi. Surprisingly, President Trump, who is usually a shrewd observer of public opinion, has allowed these clumsy messengers to become the face of his administration.
If Trump has a single weakness, it is his automatic response to setbacks: to double down regardless of the situation. Sometimes it works, but many times it leads to a trap. From Minneapolis to Austin, the Republicans resemble a dog with cans on its tail; the faster they accelerate, the louder the din. Democrats have never had it so good in the era of Trump. The old MAGA populism and libertarianism have disappeared. It’s been replaced by ballyhoo, bombast, and visions of triumphal arches that eclipse the Washington Monument.
Perhaps Trump might attempt to change direction, particularly when it comes to health care and immigration. He drops hints that he is frustrated with Republicans. After being questioned about the GOP’s defeat in Texas, he implied that local Republicans were responsible. He might be right, but he needs to clean the White House decks. Trump is being ill-served and misinformed by his advisors.
This makes it imperative that he seek some form of cooperation with Democrats. Trump’s gruff style is something he clearly is uncomfortable with. He must tire of the rumors about Republicans expressing horror of his actions in private while praising him in public. With the GOP, Trump is dealing with a Party where austerity is a central tenet of its philosophy. It loves Trump’s tax cuts but is unhappy with anything related to healthcare, even if it threatens the re-election of its office-holders. Naturally, they encourage the President’s obduracy on the budget, but Democrats could be useful in this regard, giving Trump more flexibility.
Richard Nixon may have shown the way in the early seventies by incorporating Democrats to advise him. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and John Connally served him well, fashioning his policies to offer a more palatable menu.
When Nixon abandoned cooperation, he paved the way to Watergate.
Trump should lean more on his showman style than the grim, vengeful persona he has shown recently.
