“I am Jimmy Carter and I am running for president,” he declared at the Democratic convention in 1976. It was a tongue-in-cheek poke at his obscurity at the beginning of the nominating process. He was a phenomenon, defeating George Wallace and humbling the Democratic party establishment. He was a populist –then he became the nominee. Afterwards, he became cozy with the very groups he had derided. As a result he blew a 30-point lead and defeated Gerald Ford in a squeaker.

His experience should not be lost on Donald Trump, who has lately warmed up to Republican elites in a fashion reminiscent of Carter. He visited Capitol Hill and made up with Mitch McConnell and promised his donors a massive tax cut. His rhetoric has become dull and he has chosen to oppose reliable supporters like Bob Good in Virginia. He gave a shout out in Detroit to Franklin Graham, who urged him to clean up his language. If this keeps up, he will become Thomas E. Dewey, whose boring 1948 challenge to Harry Truman led to an upset on election day.

Moreover, this love-fest has made him a curiosity, even to supporters. Trump endorsed a political enemy who refused to back him, Larry Hogan. After he endorsed him in 2024, the Maryland Senate candidate reiterated his opposition to the former president. Stephen K. Bannon has tweaked him for not endorsing Good or Matt Rosendale in Montana in favor of a RINO. Bannon endorsed Good and Rosendale and inspired Trump to not try to appease those who are eager to hem him in. Carter became deadly dull after waging a spirited primary campaign. Trump must remain true to himself.

It would be an irony if Trump lost after running an orthodox campaign. He is not Mitt Romney nor Jeb Bush. His appeal is that he does not back down and he represents real change. Again, comparison with Carter are in order. During his first term, Trump selected firm representatives of the establishment. If Carter appointed old hands like Cy Vance to the State Department, Trump did the same. If Carter appointed Zbigniew Brzezinski to be his national security chief, Trump selected John Bolton. Both seemed to prefer advisors that would have been happier with Henry Jackson in 1976 or Jeb Bush in 2016. Populism was advocated but conventional policies came forth. Carter talked about an “inordinate” fear of Communism in 1977, all the while advancing a large increase in defense allocation and Trump embraced James “Mad Dog” Mattis after eschewing “Forever Wars.”

Both Carter and Trump were tamed by the Washington establishment and this hurt their re-election hopes. Their mainstream partners left both in the lurch when times got tough. As weary as Biden appears, he could persuade the same people who are courting the “populist” alternative to suddenly change their minds.

The problem with campaigning as an outsider and then behaving like an insider is you lose authenticity. Trump, if he is too solicitous to RINOs such as Hogan, he appears as just another politician. He must hope Biden keeps missing his mark. But if he finds the right message, the president could easily turn the tables on Trump.