Donald Trump and the movement he founded, MAGA, have come to a political crossroads. The government shutdown exposed the fissures within the so-called “Populist” movement. Far from representing a new style of voice in the American political system, MAGA is revealed to be an all-too-familiar faction within the Republican Party.

Despite campaign ballyhoo in 2024, which promised to protect essential services, the Trump administration has produced a crazy-quilt collection of traditional far-right stances–tax cuts for billionaires and deep cuts for MAGA constituents. Despite conservative fantasies as to the source of waste and fraud and abuse, most of the cuts to SNAP and health care will be acutely felt in red states rather than blue ones.

Apparently, the milk of human kindness so displayed by President Trump on the hustings has curdled. Project 2025 has antecedents in Ayn Rand libertarianism sweetened by a large dose of John Birch Society conspiracy theory. This bothers some MAGA true-believers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Josh Hawley. They believed that Trump represented a very different Republican. Lately, he has not seemed interested in protecting anything but billionaires and his beloved tariffs.

Moreover, Trump’s passions are colliding with reality. He gives forty billion dollars to Argentina and undercuts American beef producers. China, during recent talks, reminded him that it had all the cards when it came to rare earth minerals, which are necessary for technical advances. Scott Bessent salvaged a deal despite the poor hand his boss dealt him.

Meanwhile, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution showing its displeasure with import duties. Wall Street hates higher tariffs, regarding them as a tax on American consumers. For the first time, Trump is running into the doubts of old-fashioned business Republicans. He can listen to the protectionist fantasies of Peter Navarro, or he can adhere to the sound policies of his Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Perhaps Trump might reassert himself and finally take on the remnants of the “Freedom Caucus”. Not since Theodore Roosevelt was challenged by the “old guard” in the Senate in 1907 has the GOP been this close to a breach.

Trump would be well-advised to try to appeal to a broad base. He will find that the GOP is too small to include a large Populist movement.

The President rides herd on the Republican Party only through success. With his polling numbers sagging, Republican leaders are less dependent on him. And they never understood MAGA, seeing it more as a slogan than a program.

Stephen K. Bannon recently indicated that he is at a loss to explain or defend the ideology he helped to structure. Bannon loves the idea of a strong presidency, but with Russell Vought calling the shots, his desire for “populism” is lost.

Perhaps Trump would do better to reassert his original vision rather than trod down the tired path pioneered by Republican reactionaries.