Pulling a plumb out of the pie
“The communists,” the President blurted out, “already control the three major networks and forty major outlets of communication.” But some of you believe Donald Trump said this, but actually, these words come from Lyndon Johnson’s mouth in July 1965, reflecting his frustration with Vietnam. No doubt Trump has bandied around the Communist label when referring to the press and is equally frustrated by the fourth estate’s coverage of Iran. Difference: LBJ said it in private, Trump tends to do it on Truth Social.
Therein lies the rub. While visiting Xi Jinping, Trump has to be careful in his demeanor and comments. However, he may be able to find a solution to the Iranian problem. And as with Richard Nixon, perhaps he may build a stronger alliance. He certainly has some room to maneuver. China needs the United States, and Xi and Trump need each other. Moreover, the Donald is uniquely positioned to negotiate because he tends to focus on common interests and not ideology. If he trusts his materialist instincts, Trump could pull a plum out of the pie.
Despite “neo-cons” and “neo-libs”, Republicans and Democrats, Trump does have some insights into the new world. Trump realizes that the People’s Republic is no longer the economic comer it was in the 1990’s; it has arrived. In 1978, China, coming out of the last phase of the Cultural Revolution, accounted for 1.7% of the world’s GDP; by 2023-24, it accounted for 18.4%. The United States has 25-26% of the world’s GDP, still ahead but not as much as in 1984, when it was 33%. China also has a great deal of the “rare earth” minerals key to both defense and commercial interests. Trump does not lecture his opponents about internal affairs.
Of course, the tariff issue could become a problem, but China and the US gave each other leeway. But one problem that could undo good relations is Iran, where China gets a good deal of its oil, and another is Taiwan. Again, Trump could follow his instincts, which go with the money, or he could be bogged down lecturing Xi on matters beyond the US’s control. If Trump sticks to Otto Von Bismarck’s maxim that politics is the “art of the possible,” he might score a major success. If he follows Steve Bannon’s road of “taking down the CCP” (Chinese Communist Party), a song he plays on Warroom, Trump will fail.
Trump’s actions toward Iran showed an initial reluctance to launch a war. Then he got suckered in by Netanyahu and neo-conservatives such as Lindsey Graham, who have never met a war they did not like. Then Trump shifted gears to policies more in tune with his instincts. Unlike LBJ, he has not committed ground troops. If he limits himself to the “weave” or surly comments, this country will be well served.
Beijing may become a partner rather than an adversary if Trump treads softly. Although he has been criticized for not being completely supportive of Ukraine, he risks less than his critics – a larger war. Perhaps Vladimir Putin could be of use. If Trump has learned something from this conflict, it is that the drones and missiles that fill the skies have as much to do with economics as with territory. So far, Trump’s hunches about diplomacy, and specifically about regime change, may prevent wider wars.
