Trump’s visit to China
President Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger received a surprise in February 1972 when they deplaned Air Force One and were immediately whisked away to greet Chairman Mao Zedong. Mao, who was rarely seen, had spent six turbulent years trying to manage the chaos unleashed by the Great Cultural Revolution. Nevertheless, he greeted the American leaders with grace and coolness. All appreciated the moment and made the most of it.
Nixon was the first US President to visit the People’s Republic. As with Donald Trump’s visit with Xi Jinping, he tried flattery. It was not over-the-top but pointed praise. “The Chairman’s writings,” Nixon intoned, “moved a nation and have changed the world.” Mao, like Xi, however, remained modest, replying, “I haven’t been able to change it. I’ve only been able to change a few places in the vicinity of Peking (Beijing).” The rest of the visit, as with Trump’s, was a lovefest with lavish entertainment and sumptuous banquets.
Nixon took a risk in visiting China, especially since the Secretary of State, William P. Rogers, regarded the communique from the visit as “disastrous” because it did not mention the then legally recognized Republic of China (Taiwan). Again, the parallels with Trump’s visit are clean; he faced pushback from Marco Rubio, his Secretary of State. This was not the first time or the last that the head of the State Department became the defense attorney for a client country.
For Trump, it is not the Thucydides trap he must fear the most, but it is the one set by his own State Department. They want him to confront the Chinese and force him into the Thucydides trap, one that was alluded to by Xi. State Department hands, supported by the Central Intelligence Agency, want the United States to wage economic warfare with the People’s Republic and risk war over the now-unrecognized Taiwan. These are the heirs of the same group that would have been satisfied with continuing the Vietnam War into eternity.
Despite their differences, Nixon and Trump share a taste for doing the unexpected. The
big difference is that Nixon had Kissinger, a subtle and masterful diplomat, and Trump has a conglomerate of untrained and ambitious advisors who are interested more in self-promotion than helping their boss develop some of his more creative foreign ideas. Trump is his own chief advisor, and on policy, the only one pushing a different direction.
Unfortunately, although Trump shares Nixon’s risk-taking, he also shares his emotional side. Kissinger could have received the same deal on Vietnam had Nixon not been obsessed with being tough. Trump has managed to sabotage his deals with Iran because of his predilection for engaging in electronic happy dancing on social media. Once more, the tendency to rub his foe’s face in the dirt prevents him from succeeding.
Trump’s MAGA allies insist that he destroy China and Iran. Stephen Bannon is an opponent of the Iran war but is eager to take on China. This is like trading a feisty possum for a Tiger as an opponent. But he is not alone. Democrats, as much as they denounce the Iran war, are just as eager to take on the Chinese over the Taiwan straits. Moreover, they also want to push the Ukrainian cause against Russia, like China, a nuclear power. This is like eschewing a skirmish for Armageddon. Trump might be overly fond of Jensen Huang and Nvidia and Elon Musk, but these executives probably give him better advice than his so-called “experts” at State or the CIA.
